International Energy Agency Orders Historic Oil Reserve Release to Stabilize Markets
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What's Happening
The International Energy Agency ordered the release of approximately 400 million barrels of emergency crude on March 11 to stabilize global oil markets disrupted by the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz. Earlier that day, three merchant vessels were struck by projectiles in the strait, and Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps stated it will prevent oil transit and target vessels linked to the United States and Israel. The White House denied a claim by U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright that the Navy had escorted an oil tanker through the strait, contradicting his earlier assertion, while President Trump demanded Iran remove any mines deployed there.
How We Got Here
On February 24, Shahriar Naqizadeh, director general of international commercial affairs at the Islamic Republic of Iran Railways, said the country's international rail freight volume had reached a record five million tons, representing a seven percent increase compared with the same date last year. This milestone was achieved earlier than the previous year, highlighting economic activity prior to the sudden escalation that would follow within days. By February 27, shipping giant Maersk announced it would temporarily reroute some sailings around the Cape of Good Hope, away from the Suez Canal, due to unforeseen constraints in the Red Sea region. The company stated that after conversations with security partners, the constraints made it challenging to avoid delays when passing through the area, signaling growing regional instability that would soon erupt into open conflict. Tensions escalated sharply on February 28 after the United States and Israel launched armed attacks on Iran in an operation that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. In response, Iran began launching drone and missile attacks against Gulf Arab states and Israel, with the armed attacks extending to all countries in the Middle East region. Passenger and freighter flights were grounded across the Middle East, including in key global air cargo hubs Doha and Dubai, as the definitive effects of these attacks remained unknown. The immediate regional impact became clear by March 1 and 2, as Maersk suspended all vessel crossings through the Strait of Hormuz until further notice. Saudi Arabia shut down its largest oil refinery after it was struck by Iranian drones, while Qatar's state-run energy firm halted liquefied natural gas production, causing prices to rise sharply. Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed to commercial shipping amid its conflict with the U.S. and Israel, and an Iranian Revolutionary Guards senior official said Iran would fire on any ship trying to pass through, according to Iranian media reports. Global economic effects quickly manifested; traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained largely halted from March 3, choking off a key artery accounting for about 20% of global oil and gas supply. Data from aviation consulting firm Aevean showed global air cargo capacity decreased by 22% between February 28 and March 3, with capacity on the Asia-Middle East-Europe corridor down 39%. On March 3, U.S. President Donald Trump stated on Truth Social that the U.S. Navy would begin escorting oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible to ensure the free flow of energy. Military actions intensified on March 4, as a U.S. submarine struck an Iranian warship off Sri Lanka, killing 87 sailors. On the same day, Qatar will fully shut down gas liquefaction and will not return to normal production and exports for at least a month, with QatarEnergy declaring force majeure on LNG shipments. These developments marked a significant expansion of the conflict beyond the Persian Gulf, directly impacting global energy supplies and maritime security. Supply chain warnings emerged globally by March 5. Verónica Rivière, president of the Spanish industrial gas association Gas Industrial, stated that price increases in the European gas market were impacting Spanish companies and would be passed down to consumers, with shipping surcharges of up to $4,000 per container doubling previous costs. South Korean authorities issued a warning to semiconductor companies including Samsung and SK Hynix about potential helium supply disruptions due to Middle East instability. Iran's Revolutionary Guard stated that it attacked a U.S. oil tanker in the northern Gulf and that the vessel was on fire, though this information was not independently verified. According to diplomatic sources, China was in talks with Iran to allow crude oil and Qatari LNG vessels safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz due to its reliance on Middle Eastern supplies. Freight analytics firm Xeneta reported that the crisis had left 147 container ships sheltering in the Gulf, triggering port congestion and freight rate increases rippling across global supply chains. Additionally, the closure of airspace over the southern half of Azerbaijan forced flight traffic into a narrow northern corridor, with real-time congestion shown in an approximately 100km wide strip. On March 6, U.S. Central Command claimed it struck an Iranian drone-carrying vessel and stated that more than 30 vessels linked to Tehran had been sunk since the offensive began. Separately, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization reported that its Food Price Index averaged 125.3 points in February, an increase from January, ending five months of decline, with the rise driven by higher costs for cereals, meat, and vegetable oils. Meat prices reached their highest nominal annual level in the FAO series, while cereal prices were 3.5% below the value from February 2025, indicating early inflationary pressures from the conflict. Escalation continued on March 7, as President Donald Trump responded to Iranian defiance by stating the U.S. would now consider attacking areas and groups of people in Iran that were not previously targeted, saying attacks would continue until Iran surrenders or collapses completely. Concurrently, the Australian federal government began developing a National Food Security Strategy to help ensure a sustainable, resilient, and secure food system, reflecting broader international concerns over supply chain stability. By March 8, the conflict directly impacted energy markets and Iranian leadership. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil surpassed $100 per barrel, reaching $103.48, a level not seen since July 2022. Iranian authorities said strikes by Israel on oil depots in Tehran and a petroleum transfer terminal early Sunday killed four people, while Israel's military stated the depots were being used by Iran's military for fuel to launch missiles. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps stated that the country would not allow the export of oil from the Gulf region if attacks by Israel and the U.S. continued, with a spokesperson warning, 'If you can tolerate oil at more than $200 per barrel, continue this game.' Iran named Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his father as Supreme Leader, which occurred after weekend airstrikes by the United States and Israel across Iran. International diplomacy and disputes unfolded on March 9. Bahrain's state oil company declared a situation of force majeure for its oil shipments, citing extraordinary circumstances due to the ongoing attacks. CBS News foreign correspondent Anna Coren reported that China's leadership was preparing for the impact of the war in Iran, including a severe disruption to its energy supplies. Israel's military said early on March 9 that its air force had begun an additional wave of strikes against unspecified regime infrastructure in central Iran and sites belonging to the Iran-backed Lebanese militant group Hezbollah in Beirut. Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that Russia was prepared to work with European customers for long-term energy cooperation if it was free from political pressures. G7 finance ministers were preparing to discuss the release of emergency oil reserves in a call coordinated by the International Energy Agency. French President Emmanuel Macron announced that a defensive international mission was underway to progressively open the Strait of Hormuz, but Iran rejected the idea, suggesting that ships from countries that expel U.S. and Israeli ambassadors could pass. In the days leading to the present, developments on March 10 included a conversation between Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and French President Emmanuel Macron where they discussed the escalation in the Middle East, condemned attacks attributed to Iran against civilians and infrastructure, and emphasized the need to prevent further regional escalation and ensure safe access through the Strait of Hormuz. Carney revealed that G7 leaders would hold an extraordinary virtual meeting on Wednesday to coordinate on the crisis. Qantas stated it was increasing international air fares due to oil price volatility caused by the war in the Middle East, saying it was not fully covered by its hedging strategies for the recent spike in jet fuel prices. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright tweeted that the U.S. Navy successfully escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz to ensure oil continues to flow to global markets, and following the tweet, Brent crude futures fell 20% to $82.16. White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt stated that no U.S. Navy escort of an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz had occurred, directly contradicting Wright's claim. President Trump demanded that Iran immediately remove any mines deployed in the Strait of Hormuz and warned of military consequences if it failed to do so. The situation reached a critical point on March 11, when three vessels, including the Thai-flagged Mayuree Naree, Japan-flagged ONE Majesty, and Marshall Islands-flagged Star Gwyneth, were hit by unknown projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz, causing damage and with three crew members reported missing from the Mayuree Naree, as shipping along the strait came to a near standstill. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, through the Khatam Al Anbiya central operational command of the Iranian army, stated it will not allow oil to pass through the Strait of Hormuz and warned that vessels associated with the United States, Israel, or their allies are legitimate targets, predicting oil prices could reach $200 per barrel. In response to these disruptions, the International Energy Agency ordered the release of approximately 400 million barrels of emergency crude from government stockpiles to stabilize global oil markets.
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